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And Now for the Forecast ……..BLEAK Gershon Baskin, Ph.D. |
Thursday,
February 01, 2001
Dear
Friends
With
events unfolding rapidly, I’ll try to make some predictions, some of
them obvious, some very likely, some of them based on political
assumptions. I apologize in advance for those of you who are expecting me
to provide you with some encouragement and some optimism.
None of that is called for now, so, Sorry.
Prediction
#1: Ariel Sharon will be the next Prime Minister of Israel (I said
that some of the predictions were obvious).
Prediction
#2: Sharon will not succeed in forming a national unity government,
although Shimon Peres might be enticed to join the government as Foreign
Minister under the “guise” of advancing peace.
Prediction
#3: Ehud Barak will be over-thrown as the leader of the Labour Party,
the top choices to replace him are Avrum Burg, Haim Ramon, or Shlomo Ben
Ami, but knowing the Labour Party, they are likely to search for a
compromise candidate who everyone knows is an idiot, someone like Binyamin
Ben Eliezer, aka Fouad. They could also fall into the trap of choosing
Shimon Peres, but I think that Peres will be serving his last term in the
Knesset this time and will retire to the Shimon Peres Center or to some
other monument established to honor the “great elder statesman”.
Personally, I will celebrate his retirement from politics.
Prediction
#4: There will be elections for the Knesset within the next year.
The Sharon government will not last a year.
Prediction
#5: Bibi Netanyahu will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after
Ariel Sharon (how’s that for depressing?!)
Prediction
#6: Sharon’s first major policy initiative will be under the title
“A Plan for Strengthening Jerusalem”. In a press conference together
with the “great” Mayor of Jerusalem, Ehud Olmert, Prime Minister
Sharon will announce that the Government of Israel will be spending
millions of dollars to upgrade the infrastructures for the Palestinian
neighborhoods of East Jerusalem, all in the name of guaranteeing the unity
of Jerusalem. Sharon will also announce a massive building program for
Jewish Jerusalem – all over East Jerusalem. Remember Zoning Plan “E1”.
Barak froze it. Now it
will come out to thaw in Sharon’s settlement micro-wave.
“E1” is a building plan to link East Jerusalem to Ma’aleh
Adumim. Sharon will instruct
the building authorities to intensify the amount of Jewish housing to be
built there. Sharon will also
instruct that Har Homa “B” be launched.
Ras al Amoud’s Jewish population will increase, as will
Silwan’s and of course there will be a plan to link Pisgat Zeev and
French Hill as well as Gilo to Har Homa. The Eastern Ring road around
Jerusalem will be launched enabling even more Jewish settlement in the
East.
Prediction
#7: The isolated settlements in the West Bank and Gaza which have been
most under fire during the intifada will also be “strengthened”. The government of Israel will launch a program of new
building in those settlements as well.
Prediction
#8: The Palestinian intifada will be drawn into Jerusalem as a
response to Sharon’s provocations. Jerusalem has been relatively quiet
except for the first week of the intifada and the first few Fridays after
prayers on the Haram al Sharif. Jerusalem
will no longer be quiet, violence will erupt throughout East Jerusalem and
will cross into the West as well.
Prediction
#9: More Israeli neighborhoods/settlements in and around East
Jerusalem will come under Palestinian fire.
Israel will retaliate with massive force.
Prediction
#10: Arafat’s control of the Palestinian streets will continue to
wither as chaos continues to take hold of the Palestinian street. The Palestinian “intifada” (uprising) is turning into an
“intifawda” (chaos) as street mobs, militia and other assorted
“players” translate their own version of Palestinian national
interests into a personal ideology which includes settling accounts,
vendettas, extortion as well as legitimate political struggles turned
violent because that is the language of the streets in Palestine as the
rule of law continues to disappear.
Prediction
#11: If Israeli responses to Palestinian violence include attacks into
Palestinian areas, we will also witness the release of Hamas and Jihad
suicide bombers onto the scene with buses and shopping centers once again
exploding as they did in 1996.
Prediction
#12: Many people from the Palestinian middle class will leave
Palestine, some to Europe and the US and those who can’t get visas or
don’t have enough money will leave for Jordan.
Some of those to leave will be Palestinian officials and
expatriates who came with the hopes that peace would bring them a decent
life.
Prediction
#13: Many young Israelis (secular, center and left-wing) will leave
Israel. Israel will continue to become more religious and more right-wing.
Prediction
#14: The economy of Israel will grow by 1-2% in 2001, below the rate
of population growth. The Israeli stock market will decline by 20% in
2001. Unemployment in Israel will climb beyond 11%.
Prediction
#15: The Palestinian economy will hit rock bottom with unemployment
hitting 50%, Palestinians will cease paying taxes all together. Israel
will withhold customs and VAT payments that will be in reduced amounts
because of the economic slow-down. The Palestinian Authority will be
unable to pay salaries.
Prediction
#16: The Inter-Continental Hotel that opened last year in Bethlehem
will not be reopened in 2001. Tourism to Israel and to Palestine will
reach the lowest levels since the 1960’s.
I
really wish that this list of predictions were so far fetched that no one
would take it seriously. But, unfortunately, I don’t believe that it is
far from the emerging reality. It
is particularly sad because I know how close Israel ad Palestine were to
reaching a final status agreement. While gaps are still wide on some key
issues, the sides really never have been closer to an agreement as they
are today. Scenarios on the future of Jerusalem and borders that were
written by IPCRI from the early 1990’s are now part of the agreed upon
parameters for an Israeli-Palestinian agreement. Who would have believed
that Prime Minister Barak would run for re-election with the slogan “Two
States for Two peoples”, he’s only about 30 years late on that one.
It
seems that both Israelis and Palestinians are not ready for an agreement
at this time. It seems that both peoples need to suffer a lot more before
they will be ready to come back to the table and conclude an agreement
that they can both live with. Here
are a few more predictions in this regard:
Prediction
#17: The next time the Palestinians come back to the table for final
status talks, Arafat will no longer be around. Personally I think this is
good for the Palestinian people as well as for Israel.
Prediction
#18: When Israel and the Palestinians do get back to the table, they
will begin from where they left off now.
After much suffering and hundreds and maybe thousands of
casualties, we will end up at the same place we are today.
Prediction #19: IPCRI will remain one of the only institutions still committed to getting Israelis and Palestinians to make peace with each other. IPCRI will still have a small but highly qualified group of Israelis and Palestinians working together, organizing conferences, meetings, dialogues, researches, etc. involving Israelis and Palestinians. The Israeli and Palestinian officials and governments will rely heavily on IPCRI to make informal contacts when the official contacts have broken down.