[[Jerusalem Times: Opinion]]

October 15, 2006

This week in Israel….. Behind the news with Gershon Baskin

Frozen negotiations

More than 21 Palestinians were killed by the IDF this weekend in a new wave of Israeli attacks in Gaza.  Palestinians responded with a new wave of Qassan rockets and new threats of unleashing attacks against Israel that would make the earth shake. The IDF and the Government seemed to be convinced that if the negotiations for the release of Corp. Gilead Schalit are not progressing, then the military pressure might work. Khaled Mashal in Damascus responded that the only way that Schalit will be released is in the framework of a prisoner exchange.  He said that Palestinians would never be forced into releasing Schalit because of Israeli use of force.  It seems to me that the decision makers in the Prime Minister’s office and in the Ministry of Defense are completely out of touch with the realities of life in Gaza. This is of course not the first time that the Israelis demonstrated the complete lack of understanding of Palestinian political culture.  Palestinian resolve to continue to hold Schalit as a hostage increases with each Palestinian killed.  At a certain point the political mood will change and the “Palestinian street” will call on the abductors of Schalit to execute him in exchange for all of the killing of Palestinians by Israel.  Today, the Palestinian mood still reflects a desire to exchange Schalit for Palestinian prisoners, but in light of the escalation by Israel, that mood is likely to change sooner rather than later.

According to reports and to information gathered by me, the negotiations for the release of Schalit, at least until yesterday, were frozen.  The Egyptian mediating role had come against Palestinian objections when Khaled Mashal let it be known that Hamas was opposed to a two phase release in which Schalit would be released to the Egyptians and only later would Palestinian prisoners be released.  Olmert opposes any direct connection between the release of Schalit and the release of Palestinian prisoners. The Hamas leaders do not trust that the Egyptians can force Israel to release Palestinian prisoners once Schalit is already set free.  The Hamas leadership in Syria requested that the Qataris be the mediators instead of the Egyptians and the Qataris apparently gave it a try, without much success.  The Egyptians have returned to the scene now after a visit by Egyptian Minister of Security Omar Suleiman to Damascus to see Khaled Mashal.  Hamas sources in Gaza reported to me yesterday that a breakthrough may be near in the coming days.

Yisrael Beitenu in the government?

Does Olmert really want Avigdor Lieberman and his Yisrael Beitenu party in the government? No one but Olmert really knows, but it seems that Olmert is tired of having a coalition that he cannot depend on, particularly facing the upcoming fight on the national budget.  Olmert knows that Amir Peretz has no control over the Labour party and the rebels against Peretz will use the budget fight to continue to challenge Peretz’s leadership, making the passing of the budget virtually impossible.  One of the rebels, Prof. Avishay Braverman, a member of the Finance Committee of Knesset has already said that he will vote against the budget in committee.  If Peretz can’t guarantee the full support of Labour’s 19 members, Olmert must expand the coalition.  Talks with the ultra-orthodox Yehadut Hatorah have been going on for months without reaching a positive end.  Lieberman’s possible entry into the government is causing Labour party members great concern.  Three senior members have come out in support of Lieberman joining the coalition, including Tourism Minister Yitzhak Herzog and Minister of Agriculture Shalom Simchon.  The remaining members of Labour are threatening to withdraw their support from the coalition if Lieberman joins.

Peretz has declared his opposition but has not made any threats.  Avishay Braverman has said that if Yisrael Beitenu joins the government, the Labour party would become irrelevant. Other rebels challenging Peretz’s leadership, such as Ami Ayalon have also come out strongly against Yisrael Beitenu’s inclusion in the government.

Illegal outposts and coalition expansion

Minister of Defense Amir Peretz has issued orders to General Yousef Mishlev, the Coordinator of Government Affairs in the Occupied Territories, to make preparations for the dismantlement of tens of illegal outposts.  This was supposed to have been done months ago but no action was taken so far. Suddenly Peretz’s decision to give the orders to finally dismantle the outposts is being interpreted as his way of facing the Lieberman threat.  Leiberman has told Olmert that one of his conditions for entering the government is the legalization of the outposts.  Some voices in Kadima have criticized Peretz’s move as a cynical use of the army and the Ministry of Defense to wage a political battle.  

At least the issue of the outposts is back on the agenda.  This issue is crucial for Israel not only because of the Israeli obligations under the Road Map but also because this is an issue primarily concerning the rule of law in the State of Israel.  The settlers have acted outside of the law since 1977 and the Talia Sasson report to the Government of Israel, which was the first official Government appointed report on the sheer outrageous lawless behavior of the settlement movement.  There is urgency and an expectation for Amir Peretz to finally take action against the outposts. If he does finally take decisive action against these illegal outposts, perhaps he can reclaim some of his lost appeal and confidence which he certainly lost following his performance since the elections. It may be a cynical exploitation of politics, but if in the end the illegal outposts are finally removed, then two birds will be killed with one stone – confronting the settlers and preventing Lieberman from joining the government.

Government and political reform

As part of the demand of Leiberman to enter the Government, the Ministerial Committee on Legislation today voted 5 to 4 in favor of the proposal put forth by Lieberman to move Israel to a presidential regime.    Lieberman’s proposal is that the Head of State in Israel would be the Prime Minister who would be elected directly for a period of four years.  The Prime Minister would form his cabinet without having to receive a vote of confidence from the Knesset.  The Cabinet would function like the US Cabinet as the Executive Branch of Government.  Unlike the US system, the Prime Minister could be ousted by the Knesset with a majority vote of at least 80 members of Knesset.  Lieberman has proposed to eliminate the position of President, which may actually gain support following the likely indictment of President Katzav on a variety of sexual misconduct charges including the possibility of being charged with rape. Lieberman also proposes to raise the threshold for entering the Knesset.  The height of the threshold requested by Lieberman has been reported as being 10% but some Kadima sources have said that they are talking about 4% (today it is 2%).

There is a strong sense that something must be done to stabilize Israel’s faltering democracy.  It seems that no government in Israel can complete its term of office and frequent elections do not mean more democracy.  There is something very wrong with the Israeli system and change is necessary.  The proposals made by Lieberman and reportedly supported by Olmert are interesting and should be studied and analyzed.  Will the proposed changes create more stability, e.g. less elections – probably.  Will the proposed change give the citizens a sense that their voice is being heard – probably not.  There has been talk in Israel about creating a system that would also incorporate regional or district elections that would provide more direct representation of citizens.  In order for that system to be incorporated and effective, there would probably be a need to enlarge the size of the Knesset beyond its present 120 members.  But that would be extremely unpopular and seen as a waste of money which most people already think is the main role of the Knesset.  The adoption of the so-called “Norway law” where members of the government must resign the Knesset seats would enlarge the number of political representatives and would cost a lot less money  - this might be the way to move forward.

At the present time, despite the instability of the government, new early elections are still quite unlikely.  The mere fact that some 50 members of Knesset know that if there were new elections now, they would not be returning to the Knesset is one of the strongest deterrents from voting no confidence in the government. Furthermore, while Netanyahu and the Likud may be gaining in recent polls, Ehud Olmert can rest quietly without fear of a takeover by Netanyahu because it is quite clear that many more people dislike Netanyahu than dislike Olmert. At the present time there do not seem to be any clear challenges against Olmert’s leadership in Kadima, although it seems likely that Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni must be staying alert for the opportune time for her to stand up and challenge Olmert. Livni is a lot more popular in the polls than Olmert and the fact that Livni has presented her opposition to expanding the Lebanon war during the first week of fighting shows that she may also be someone who actually has an analytical strategic mind and not only the high levels of testosterone flowing in the veins of Olmert and Peretz.

Gershon Baskin is the Co-CEO of IPCRI – the Israel/Palestine Center for Research and Information.  www.ipcri.org