The Arab League rescued Palestinian Authority
President Mahmoud Abbas, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and
President Barack Obama from being boxed into a corner. The
onemonth extension granted to the peace process during which
they have to find a way back to negotiations provides a little
room to breathe and avoids having Obama take the direct fallout
from a foreign policy failure prior to the crucial midterm
elections on November 2.
The truth is that neither the Palestinians nor the Israelis have
a strategic alternative to negotiations. Neither side is doing
the other side a favor by agreeing to negotiate an end to the
conflict. Time is working against the interests of both and
neither leadership has the luxury of waiting for a miracle.
Neither side is interested in another round of violence nor
wishes to see the economic growth of the past two years erased
by confrontations, closures, bombings, death, destruction and
despair. There is too much to lose to allow the chance of peace
to evade us once again. Netanyahu and Abbas must face the tough
task of making tough decisions. This very well may be the last
opportunity for achieving a workable, equitable partition of the
land that would be the best chance of reaching peace.
The US will continue to try to entice Netanyahu to agree to a
settlement freeze extension for another few months and to
pressure the Palestinians to stay at the table even without a
full freeze.
Netanyahu himself may be convinced by the sweet offers given to
him as Abbas also may be, but on both sides, domestic political
constraints are far more limiting than one may expect.
IT SEEMS clear that both publics live under the illusion that
there is a strategic alternative to negotiations. Both would
prefer to flex their muscles than appear to be giving in to
pressure or, in this case, agreeing to American enticements that
would lead them to compromise on tactical minutia they raised to
the level of consequence and principles.
In all honesty, the political behavior of both sides is shameful
and the political handling of the issue by the Americans has
been riddled with mistakes and miscalculations.
Neither Abbas nor Netanyahu is worthy of being called a leader,
nor are the Americans worthy of being called effective
mediators.
The Americans, the Quartet and the parties may have to come up
with some real alternative to direct negotiations at this point,
until they are politically mature enough, or until they manage
to come a lot closer to a real agreement on issues of substance.
Both sides are certainly considering unilateral options.
There is no doubt that both sides can take steps unilaterally
that could either have a positive outcome and lead us closer to
peace or alternatively could provoke the next round of violence.
Of course, the options being considered are those which will be
considered provocations rather than unilateral steps toward
peace.
Israel could unilaterally annex settlement blocs. The
Palestinians could unilaterally turn to Western states or to the
UN to recognize a state in the 1967 borders.
Israel could reestablish checkpoints and roadblocks throughout
the territories and Palestinians could once again take up the
gun and challenge the authority of the IDF throughout the West
Bank.
Unilaterally leading us back onto the road of death and
destruction is actually quite easy. It is politically expedient
to have someone to blame for all of the problems.
It is easy to restir the pot of violence and extremism.
Rebuilding a culture of hate is so much easier than building a
culture of peace.
TEN YEARS after the second intifada that took the lives of
thousands and left destruction and despair without a single
political achievement, we should understand that we must do
everything possible to advance what is believed by most of the
world to be a real chance for peace. But it seems that neither
side will be wise enough to do the right thing.
A popular right-wing Israeli leader who appears to be taking a
pragmatic path and the last of the founding fathers of
Palestinian nationalism have emerged on the world stage at a the
same time. There is an American president committed to peace and
willing to devote his political collateral in the process. There
is an international community backing a solution which has been
proposed and whose price tag is known. The Arab world is anxious
to put this conflict into the history books.
There is an economic reality that would bring great benefits to
the people of both states and to all of the peoples of the
region. There is a shared threat from an emerging regional state
aiming to become a nuclear power. The stars seemed better
aligned now to move peace forward than at any time in the past
decade.
What is absent is any real call from the people of Israel and
Palestine demanding their leaders become serious about peace.
We have become so skeptical about the possibility of peace that
outside observers cannot understand why the rest of the world
seems to want it so much more than those who suffer directly
from the lack of it. It seems quite abnormal that the
overwhelmingly silent majority of Israelis and Palestinians
don't even seem to care whether or not there will be peace
negotiations.
The vocal minorities on both sides clearly support nationalistic
options that “feel good” but are dangerous and counterproductive
to their real strategic interests.
Real leaders make real hard decisions.
Historic leaders make hard decisions, even if at their time
unpopular, because they can see beyond the moment of necessary
national ego massage that feels so good but ignores the pain
that really needs to be treated.
Netanyahu and Abbas view themselves as historic leaders. Obama
has already received his Nobel Peace Prize in advance of making
peace. This trio will either prove to be tragic figures of
historical insignificance or the masters of their own fate and
the heroes of their peoples. We who observe from the sidelines
will soon be able to write their epitaphs.
The writer is the co-CEO of
IPCRI (www.ipcri.org) and an elected member of the leadership of
the Green Movement political party.