Choose Partnership

Gershon Baskin*

April 25, 2006

The recent clashes between Hamas and Fateh spell out the national crisis for leadership of the Palestinian people. The choice is not only between Hamas and Fateh, it is also a choice between governance and total anarchy.  The decision of the Israeli government and the international community to force the Hamas-led PA government to either accept the three Israeli demands or to collapse has ignored the third possibility of total chaos and a breakdown of any leadership to govern the Palestinian people. Led by the continued assumption that there is no Palestinian leader, the new Israeli government is likely to seek to advance its unilateral convergence plan. If, however, total anarchy should emerge in the Palestinian territories, it is more likely that the Israeli government will not be able to implement the convergence plans and will have to face a new round of acute violence and terrorism.

Despite formal statements to the contrary, Palestinian President Abbas has been working to secure leadership and governance under the Office of the President that would either replace or supercede the Hamas-led Palestinian Cabinet. Abbas has created a set of shadow ministries and authorities directly loyal to him and the Fateh movement that has to the potential to govern and assume full responsibilities for civilian and military control. The Hamas-led Cabinet has so far failed to take effective control due to several reasons including the international and Israeli boycott preventing all funding from entering the Treasury. Most of the Arab world has also denied the Hamas-led PA formal recognition and Abbas’ moves to create alternative shadow-like government bodies are aimed at replacing the failed Hamas leadership. Hamas’ decision, perhaps without choice and without realizing the international and local consequences to ally with Iran and Syria has now placed them in direct confrontation with Jordan as well.

Hamas’ decision to appoint hardliner Mahmoud Azahar to the Foreign Ministry and Jamal Abu Samahadah to head a new Hamas controlled security force together with the direct attacks against Abbas by Khaled Mashal have underscored the unlikely possibility of Palestinian unity. The clashes between Abass loyalists and Hamas over the weekend are the first sign of possible civil war.  Even though Hamas fighters are outnumbered five to one, with the Fateh forces in total disarray and the high level of motivation of Hamas loyalists there is no guarantee whatsoever that Fateh would come out of a civil war on top. Abass would like to avoid direct confrontation with Hamas fighters.  His choice would be for the Hamas leadership to come to the conclusion itself that it must either adopt a more practical line or that it cannot govern. But there is no guarantee that the Hamas leadership will simply turn to Abbas to save the day. Abbas has the authority to declare a state of emergency, but the success of gaining public legitimacy for assuming power and control from the Hamas will depend upon either a clear and dramatic decline to total anarchy or from a clear understanding of the public that calm can be restored and that there would be clear substantive political and economic benefits immediately in the offing including a re-instatement of law and order.

Abass’ plans to retake full control could be successful, but only if he receives sufficient cooperation and support from the United States, the European Union and the Government of Israel.   It seems evident from the lack of support that Abbas is receiving from the West and from Israel that the construction of a strategic alternative to Hamas has not yet been determined.

Israel is banking on unilateralism, but unilateralism is not the alternative because Israel will not be able to withdraw the military without the ability to transfer governance to a credible Palestinian body. Since most western and Israeli analysts do not believe that the Hamas will change its ideology and accept the Israeli and international demands, it seems that they are banking on the collapse of the Hamas-led government. It is not clear that these experts have considered the ramifications of such a collapse particularly regarding Israel’s internal security. While difficult for most Israelis to admit, the basic logic of Oslo remains the only real alternative for Israel.  There must be a Palestinian partner and Israel must be willing to cooperate with that partner.

The crisis of “no-partner” is one that exists on both sides of the conflict.  It is not only the Israeli side that has determined that there is no partner. Since the election of former Prime Minister Sharon in February 2001, Palestinians have concluded that there is no Israeli partner for a negotiated process. Prime Minister-elect Olmert’s statements regarding the desire of Israel to negotiate with the Palestinians are equally as hollow as Abbas’ statements that he full accepted the Road Map. Both sides have had more than their fill of empty words and statements.

The reality is that the Palestinian President is quietly but in a determined way taking real actions to govern. Abass’ actions to create a governing alternative to Hamas are now evident and it is time that they be met with Israeli actions of engagement. If Abass’ leadership and authority is not strengthened by the West and by Israeli engagement, the Ramallah, Gaza and Nablus will look like Baghdad, Basra and Falluja.  Israel negotiated all of the agreements with the PLO and not with the Palestinian Authority.  Israel can continue to boycott the Palestinian Authority until is adheres to the international conditions, but it should immediately recognize the authority and the efforts of Abbas.  If Olmert and Kadima are serious about the convergence plan, the only way to successfully implement an Israeli withdrawal of any significance in the West Bank is to work hand-in-hand with Abbas. Continued Israeli statements regarding the non-existence of a Palestinian partner will guarantee that there will not be a partner and the areas beyond the separation barrier will be the hot-bed of radical Islamic terrorism directed both to the west and to the east.

* Dr. Gershon Baskin is the Israeli Co-CEO of IPCRI, the Israel/Palestine Center for Research and Information  (www.ipcri.org)