February 18, 2008
AN
ISRAELI VIEW
A Hamas-Israel agreed
ceasefire now |
by Gershon Baskin |
The war in the south rages on with increased rocket
fire from Gaza into Israel and escalated Israeli
responses. The Hamas and Jihad leadership in Gaza has
gone underground in fear that Israel will resume its
policy of targeted killings against them. At the same
time, Rabbi Menachem Froman of Tekoa and Palestinian
journalist Khaled Amayreh have worked out a "draft
agreement" for a ceasefire that Amayreh claims has the
backing of the Hamas leadership, including Khaled
Meshaal.
I spoke with Hamas leaders in Gaza and received
verification that if Israel would support the agreement,
Hamas would declare its support as well. Hamas leaders
have also agreed to the idea of involving the Egyptians
in negotiations if Israel wishes to make changes in the
draft agreement. The agreement includes a call for a
full ceasefire between Israel and all of the factions in
Gaza. The document explicitly states that attacks
against all Israelis will cease.
During the past several months I conducted a series
of talks with several Hamas leaders in Gaza who
approached me to advocate a ceasefire agreement with the
government of Israel. I told those Hamas leaders that I
would not take such a step unless they could deliver a
Hamas guarantee that all of the factions in Gaza would
adhere to the ceasefire. I proposed that they either
undertake a commitment to impose the ceasefire on all
factions or alternatively that they secure the agreement
of all of them to sign on. I was informed that at least
five meetings with the leaders of all factions took
place in the home of PM Ismail Haniyeh, but until
recently neither agreement of all of the factions was
received nor was there a clear decision by Hamas to
impose the ceasefire.
Following the issuing of the draft ceasefire
agreement by Froman and Amayreh, several Hamas leaders
in Gaza told me that they were willing to accept all of
the terms of the draft and to make sure that all of the
factions in Gaza adhere to it as well. I suggested that
a formal statement be issued by Haniyeh in Gaza and by
Khaled Meshaal in Damascus. Such a formal statement has
not yet been issued.
As opposed to what I believed prior to the breach of
the Rafah border, today I support the acceptance of this
"draft agreement" and believe that it may be the best
strategic option for all parties. I would recommend that
trilateral consultations between the government of
Israel, the Palestinian Authority government in the West
Bank and Egypt be conducted to reach consensus on
accepting the terms of this draft agreement. I would
advise that Egypt mediate in the process of formalizing
acceptance of the draft or in making agreed changes to
it.
My support for the new ceasefire is based on the
following reasons:
- The present policy of pressure and strangulation
of Gaza in order to weaken Hamas has backfired;
Hamas is stronger now than prior to implementation
of the policy.
- The complete and total closure of Gaza has not
at all prevented the importation into Gaza of
weapons and explosives and entry of personae non-gratae.
- The situation in Sderot and in other Israeli
communities around Gaza is intolerable. The rocket
fire must stop and there appears to be no clear
military strategy for dealing with it.
- The life of the civilian population in Gaza is
intolerable and inhumane. Thus, the collective
punishment of that population should be ceased.
- A large-scale military operation into Gaza is
too risky, too dangerous, too costly--politically,
militarily, economically and in human lives--and
will most likely only cause an escalation in the
West Bank, perhaps the fall of the Abbas regime and
the introduction and growth of forces even more
extreme in the Gaza Strip.
- The best way to ensure the continuation of the
peace process and the negotiations is by arriving at
a situation whereby there is quiet in the south.
The issue of what to do about Gaza is complex, and
there are no good options at hand. Every possible
decision has its negative consequences and pitfalls that
may in fact worsen the situation. Whatever strategic
choices are made at this time, it is paramount that all
parties keep in focus the primary common strategic
objectives of Israel and the Palestinian Authority: to
proceed and succeed in the renewed peace process and
create the political and security possibilities for Gaza
to be included. All policy decisions taken must keep
these primary strategic objectives in focus.
It is therefore of the utmost urgency that
de-escalation of forces and tensions takes place on both
sides of the Gaza border. The government of Israel and
the PA in Ramallah should enter into direct
consultations on the emerging situation on the ground.
The Hamas political and military leadership in Gaza and
Damascus should halt all military activities against
Israel and allow for a period of calm to return so that
all parties can reconsider their strategic options. The
government of Israel should respond to any Hamas
de-escalation by de-escalating in parallel its attacks
against Gaza. These steps should be completed by
bilateral acceptance of a formal ceasefire that could be
based on the Froman-Amayreh document.- Published
18/2/2008 © bitterlemons.org
Gershon Baskin is the Co-CEO of IPCRI - the
Israel/Palestine Center for Research and Information.